also reporter ruth conniff with us tonight here on "the ed show" that is "the ed show" from new york city. "the ed schultz." "the daily rundown" starts now with chuck todd. have a great weekend. see you here tomorrow morning. as we fall back from daylight savings, the candidates are using every minute of that extra hour. president obama bounces from one battleground state to another using ohio as his airline hub. he's using all the hot spots trying to rally his base and any undecided voters he thinks are left. governor romney is also racing against the clock, tweaking his closing argument just slightly to get into the end zone. and in case you forgot, we've got more than two guys running on tuesday, tonight we'll break down all of the battles, particularly for congress and who will decide control of it and what the next president can get done. good evening from democracy plaza. here in new york city, it is

saturday, november 3, 2012. this is a prime time edition of "the daily rundown." i'm chuck todd. i call it my election preview special, so we'll get to my first reads with a twist. we're taking a look at how we got here. presidential elections that aren't close are actually odd. no republican has gotten more than 300 electoral votes since 1988. only four democrats in history have gotten more than 53% of the vote. polls say the president may have an advantage, but romney could have an enthusiasm edge. bottom line, this is 1976 meets 2000 meets 2004. in other words, it's a very close race. so how did we get here? the president began this campaign weighed down by a troubled economy and still faces a jobless rate higher than any incumbent seeking re-election since fdr. when the president was sworn in, the economy was bleeding 800,000 jobs a month. in his first six months, there was a lot of money spent, some of it by choice, most of it by need. the wall street bailout, the federal stimulus and the auto

bailout. at the time a lot of us said as gm goes, so goes the obama presidency. you know there, have been so many bailouts, we are kind of numb to it, but this really is a big one. it's kennedy in the steel industry, it's reagan in the air traffic controllers, it is truman in the big railroad. this is a big moment. >> and on tuesday, this race could come down to how that decision has echoed in the state of ohio where government spending wasn't popular and neither was health care. three cruel summers began with the angry town halls in 2009 that soured the public on the health care law that eventually passed. of course there was that 2010 bp oil spill which shook faith in government a little bit. republicans won the house with the largest gain for either party since 1948. >> this is something that i think every president needs to go through. now, i'm not recommending for every future president that they took a shellacking like i did

last night. >> after that, the debt ceiling crisis in 2011. and then the president began to string together a few victories. it started after the 2010 elections reconciling with former president bill clinton who made his debut as a character witness in 2010. vouching for the big tax compromise at the time reached with republicans in delivering a 1-2 punch that now has become a staple in his campaign. >> i've been keeping the first lady waiting for about half an hour. so i'm going to take off. >> i don't want to make her mad. please go. >> you're in good hands. >> the president signed the repeal of don't ask, don't tell. he put together a checklist of accomplishments that you hear now on the campaign trail. withdrawing the final troops from iraq and announcing his top national security achievement. >> tonight i can report to the american people and to the world that the united states has conducted an operation that killed osama bin laden, the leader of al qaeda.

>> he put together a coalition in building intensity with his case, by supporting gay marriage, easing immigration rules. and then the obama campaign focused single mindedly on beating mitt romney as early as it could. the president has since caught a few breaks. in september the jobless rate fell below 8%, the lowest level since the month the president took office. but tuesday's elections will show was it enough to off-set the president's debate performance in denver? >> you know, four years ago i said that i'm not a perfect man and i wouldn't be a perfect president and that's probably a promise that governor romney thinks i've kept. >> that said, the president might be in a position of eking out a victory, a 50-plus one majority. >> we are not just building cars again, we are building better cars.

making sure that health care choices for women are controlled by women, as to tozed to -- i'm not going to ask young people to pay more for college. >> you hear hope and change has been replaced by block and tackle. >> mitt romney's road to election day he dropped out of the presidential race in 2008 and endorsed john mccain. he laid it out in his book called "no apology" and started building his campaign from there. from the outside, romney's strength was also a liability. he was a suburban moderate republican with midwestern roots in a party that some call too conservative, evangelical and too southern. but romney's three ms, moderate, massachusetts and mormon were involved and as conservatives soured on the idea of a health care mandate, romney tried to inoculate himself on his

achievement as governor. he says we can accomplish the same thing for everyone in the country and it can be done without letting government take over health care. and it was done without government taking over health care. in june 2011 at a farm in new hampshire, romney officially announced his second bid for the presidency. >> just one of the guys running. >> the first element of becoming the front runner was keeping viable challengers out of the race and one by one they bowed out. finally the summer of 2011 a viable challenger got in, rick perry. perry proved to be just short of a series of romneys showing the base was not satisfied. they all surged to lead in the national polls before self-destructing. finally, romney ended up one-on-one with rick santorum. and the two primary night that is kept us up the longest will be the states that will keep us up on tuesday, iowa, and a few weeks later santorum was declared the victor and then ohio. >> we are actually looking at recount provisions in the state

of ohio. our models have it that close. >> romney's struggle in ohio was partly rooted in the 2008 new york times op-ed he wrote just weeks after obama won calling for managed bankruptcy but said the government should only guarantee private loans. quote, detroit needs a turnaround, not a check, he wrote. the piece was entitled "let detroit go bankrupt." romney survived the primary gauntlet and let republican super pacs hammer the president on the air. the campaign spend a lot of time defining romney before romney was able to define obama. romney was criticized for taking a week off in july for campaigning about the obama's strategy and for bundling the trip to israel, europe and poland. he announced paul ryan as his running mate but that didn't produce the bump he needed. as the focus of the race turned to medicare and the ryan budget.

the republican convention was disrupted by weather and a guy talking to an empty chair. and then mid-september in the leaked video of mitt romney's 47% remark surfaced doing the campaign work for them. the first presidential debate, romney bested obama in front of 66 million people and began to benefit from momentum. and then hurricane sandy hit. on tuesday romney will try to do something only accomplished once in 100 years. he'll try not to just unseat an incumbent president, but he's trying to knock a party out of power after just one term. while the president is targeting each part of his coalition with a handful of small arguments, romney is counting on winning the large one. >> he made a lot of promises, but those promises he couldn't keep. and the difference between us, he made promises he couldn't

keep, i'm making promises i have kept and i will keep them for the american people. >> so where does that leave us? the two campaigns believe passionately in two different realities. the obama campaign believes the country's demographics have changed the electorate in their favor. the romney campaign believes you have the momentum to swing over. it's possible we are headed for a 50/50 split. it all comes down to nine states or is it seven or is it five? whatever the result, polization is hardening. the house has changed hands three times in the last two decades. two of those times have been in the last six years. red states are getting redder and blue states are getting bluer. and even in the swing states republicans living with republicans and democrats with democrats, giving county maps that watch-work look, if you

will. shifting demographics are changing, the makeup of the electorate in 1980 whites made up nine of every ten voters. but by 2008 that number dropped to 74%. one of tuesday's most important predictors will be that makeup, white versus non-white. it's very president that the president could win with the lowest share of blue collar whites since 1984 because the republican party is likely to get the lowest amount of latinos and african-americans in its history. we're a 50/50 country deciding whether taxes go up or down, how you get health insurance. the fundamental role of government in your life could be decided. the great challenge for the winner will be governing in a climate more bitter, more polarized, more divided than we've had in a long time. all right. now we're going to get into the weeds. up next, time for a very heavy dose of flova. the view from the ground in the big three, florida, virginia and ohio. we'll go to each state live.

and speaking of flova, florida, ohio, virginia, here's a look at the president's schedule. romney's schedule, looks like he's making some time for the key stone state. and the vice president stopping by "hardball" tomorrow night. be sure to check it out. you're watching a primetime edition of "the daily rundown." we are locked up right here in democracy plaza. we'll be right back. [ woman ] ring. ring. progresso. i just finished a bowl of your new light chicken pot pie soup and it's so rich and creamy... is it really 100 calories? let me put you on webcan... ...lean roasted chicken... and a creamy broth mmm i can still see you. [ male announcer ] progresso. you gotta taste this soup. ♪ [ snoring ] [ male announcer ] introducing zzzquil sleep-aid. [ snoring ] [ snoring ] [ male announcer ] it's not for colds,

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[ female announcer ] some people like to pretend a flood could never happen to them. and that their homeowners insurance protects them. [ thunder crashes ] it doesn't. stop pretending. only flood insurance covers floods. ♪ visit floodsmart.gov/pretend to learn your risk. we need you virginia. we've got to take back america. i'm counting on you. >> they're betting on cynicism. ohio, i'm betting on you. i'm betting on you. >> you have that responsibility, you have that opportunity and on november the 6th, florida can make mitt romney the next president of the united states. >> ladies and gentlemen, with

you we can win. we win florida, we win this election! >> well, in 2000 the election turned on the state of florida. in 2004 it was ohio that was the key. in 2008, virginia found itself in the center spotlight. collectively i've been calling them flohva. three of the most sharply contested battlegrounds in the country, the largest of them all. until florida our new poll has president obama up. ohio we still have the president holding his lead. 51% to 45%. and in a recent poll of likely voters in virginia, the president was up 2 points, a statistical dead heed. nbc news has its own poll coming out monday morning. look at the ad spending in these three states. $190 million in florida, $195 million in ohio, $150 million in virginia. more than half a billion collectively in the mega states of flohva.

they're not just spending money there, they're spending time. from april 1st through election day, the president will have sited the sunshine state 14 times, for mitt romney, it's 16. president obama will have made 19 stops in ohio, governor romney will be there 21 times. and romney will make 14 visits to virginia, 13 stops for the president. so let's get to the special flohva panel. adam smith is the political editor, chris booker from our affiliate wcmh in columbus, and larry sabado, editor of the crystal ball blog. larry, let me start with you. the state of virginia, last time it was the closest to the country, the national popular vote. it was the one point off if you will of what obama -- mccain's numbers were to the national numbers were, will it be that way, does the winner of the

popular vote win virginia, larry? >> i think virginia is very very, close, chuck. i think you could argue that virginia is one of the two or three closest states in the country right now. it's funny to have a panel of florida, ohio and virginia. florida and ohio are used to this attention. they get it every four years. we used to be the bulgaria of american politics and now we've turned into the paris. or that's how we feel. i would say on the whole, having talked to both sides repeatedly, they both insist that their trackings show their candidate up a point or two. and i have no reason to disbelieve them. that leads me to believe that it's very close. president obama would love to have virginia, because if he gets it, he really blocks most of the reasonable pathways to 270, assuming he keeps ohio and he's clearly ahead there. and governor romney really needs virginia. he's got to have it. >> speaking of gotting to have a state, let's go down to adam smith in florida. you guys had a poll out today,

51-45 that had romney ahead. this seems to be the same story that larry is hearing in virginia, i am hearing in florida, where the two sides insist they're ahead because they believe in two different worlds what the electorate is going to look like. >> i hear the same thing that both sides are convinced they are hearing, up by a point or two and this is a margin of error race. today was the last day of early voting in florida. democrats are up about 104,000 votes over republican votes, but that's significantly less than the advantage they had four years ago. >> a number i heard adam was 160, i think, is what somebody told me if they get to 160, 200, somewhere in that range, they think they can win -- that they'll get enough on election day to pull that off. that sounds like they're going to fall short. >> it's sounds like they're going to fall short and we've

got early voting lines of five hours or more in places like miami. i saw a thousand people waiting in line in st. petersburg today. if they come slightly short, it may not matter in the electoral college but i think there may be questions about the republican legislature here cutting back early voting days. >> chris booker in columbus, let me ask you, i know the secretary of state made an announcement today, well over a million people voted early, 1.6 million, is it over or still more to come? >> there's more early vote to come tomorrow. obviously sunday is a big day, chuck. you'll have the souls to the polls effort of trying to get out the african-american vote. we have evangelicals coming in. i've heard that rand paul is supposed to be where casick lives, john kasich, the governor of the state of ohio, the effort to get out both sides of the vote which my sours tell me is

very, very close. >> chris, the jeep ad that governor romney ran and there is some hammering about it quietly in republican circles, is that a decisive thing? are we going to look back at this and say, romney cape up short in ohio because of the jeep ad? >> you know, chuck. i think it's going to be fascinating. when you think of one of the earliest decisions that the president made was that auto bailout that that may be the defining issue. and my democrat sources say that it just showed desperation, it smacked of desperation and even some republicans have told me that he needed to take on the auto bailout sooner rather than what happened in this last week with this ad in toledo. >> larry, if you could have only one county's results in the state of virginia to watch, and that was the only county you could see, you couldn't see the rest of the state, what county would you pick? >> probably loudoun county. president obama doesn't have to win it in northern virginia.

he did win it four years ago, but he has to come close. he has to come close because he needs northern virginia to turn in a very strong performance. >> adam smith, same question to you. if you could only have one county's results in the state of florida, what county do you want? >> i wish you could give me three counties, but if i had to pick one, i would have to go with hillsborough county. >> give me the other two fast then. >> miami and orange county. >> you want to know what the gaps would be there. >> and chris booker same to you. if you only had one? >> don't you want to see hamilton county went for obama in 2008, but traditional republican stronghold. you would like to see where hamilton county breaks on tuesday. >> see, guys, we don't need three states, we've got it down to three counties. chris booker, larry sabato and adam smith in tam pais bay, thank you all.

appreciate it. next up, your "daily rundown" guide what to watch for as the results came in on tuesday. but first today's trivia question. name the only two states that flipped their presidential vote in both 2004 and 2008. gore, bush, obama, that's your hint. tweet me the answer. the answer is coming up on this special primetime edition of "the daily rundown." we'll be right back. i'm only i.

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i want to give you an hour-by-hour viewing guide for the next two days and for election night. i'm going to dive deep into what states you should be watching and what the early results will

tell us in the coming days. first let's set the stage at the look of where the candidates are headed over the remaining days. three more time sunday, monday and saturday here. it looks like an airline hub for air force 1. like the back of a magazine here. he's still getting others in. he's still getting a bit of colorado and florida, but look at this. the final day, on monday. ohio, wisconsin and iowa. there's a reason for it. the western firewall. let's take a look at mitt romney's schedule as you can see here. it includes plenty of ohio. he gets there twice. he's throwing in pennsylvania, though. what pennsylvania is, is this a position of strength or is this the ohio insurance policy if it doesn't come through? because here's the other problem he has because he's also gone to new hampshire a couple of times and he's closing there. the reason is florida, virginia and ohio don't get him to 270. the state of new hampshire would get him to 270. and even if it's florida, virginia and pennsylvania, he still needs two more going in. now let's go through the poll closing business here, by 9:00 p.m. polls will have closed here in new hampshire, pennsylvania,

virginia and florida. and here's the way to look at it. if, say, at 7:00, virginia is too close to call, that's not good news for romney. you have the feeling as if romney is going to overperform the national number by a point or two in virginia. if that's a too-close-to-call state, and we haven't called it by 9:00, i think the folks will be worried. let's do it again. let's look at pennsylvania. if at 8:00, by 9:00 we haven't called pennsylvania, then suddenly the folks in chicago better be nervous because this is a state that hadn't been on the battleground. it's closed a little bit, but the assumption has been there's sort of a built-in vote there thanks to philadelphia. so if we haven't called that, that's a problem. now what about quick calls. let's say if we call florida and virginia fairly quickly. which means we are confident romney is going to win by two or three points. then that tells us this could be, and we have not yet called, fripgs, ohio, and that's too close to call.

well suddenly that could be a good romney night. let's do it here. what if we call ohio early. there's going to be a lot of sort of that's the ball game type thing. there are still paths for romney without ohio, but the point is how quickly do we call those states? what are still too close to call? it's an interesting way to watch the night. let me quickly of course throw you through a couple of scenarios and what i want to do tonight is sort of what is the most narrow way for things to go and what is the quickest way? the quickest way for the president to get to 270 is ohio and wisconsin. and that's what they're counting on. when we talk about the midwest firewall, that's what we talk about. so when you've got mitt romney, he needs all these states. he needs florida, he needs virginia, he needs colorado, and he needs new hampshire and this is a way to do it without ohio. that's the one piece of good news. what if he can't get a wisconsin? wisconsin would put him over the top. what's his fastest way to get there? you put ohio back over here and

he could do it then without colorado and without iowa. so his fastest way to 270 would be florida, virginia, ohio and new hampshire. so there's a way to watch this night. there's a way to watch it before 9:00. what we haven't called to tell you about is where the night is headed. next on the low down on the down ballot races. you're watching a special prime time he designation of "the daily rundown." we'll be right back. ♪ now it's stirred. let's get a cookie sheet. i am the ghost of cookies past. residue. so gross. well you didn't use new pam, so it looks like you're "stuck" with me. that's a really good one. thank you, i'm here all week, folks. no wait... i'm here forever! ha ha ha! ba-doom chh! ba-doom cha! [ female announcer ] bargain brand cooking spray

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i see your cup of joe goes with you. how nice of joe to, how you say, have your back. try something different. a delicious gevalia kaffe, or as i like to say, a cup of johan. will johan power walk the mall with you? i don't think so. but he will spend time rubbing your feet, discussing your feelings. ♪ joe may have your back, but johan has your feet. gevalia. meet me in the coffee aisle. there are other important races out there that we're watching besides the presidential election. 33 senate seats up for grabs. believe it or not, there will be 15 of them that we think will be

decided by less than ten points. it's the moder load of great races. six are in so-called red states, and three are in blue states. montana, nebraska, missouri, indiana, north dakota. three are in blue states, maine, massachusetts and connecticut. joining me now, nbc news and political analyst and the editor and publisher of the political report, charlie cook. charlie, this has been a great year for senate races. if this were a mid-term election, they would get new credit. >> i'm going to put up. what we have is this is based on the cook map right now. this is everything that's likely that's in red or blue. so we start this way and we have 15 of them. so we're going to quickly run down the ones that you don't have in toss-up anymore but are lean in the presidential states. hit me. >> pennsylvania. tom casey's scared but tom smith scared bob casey but casey is going to hold. >> okay, keep going.

ohio? >> you skipped on me. >> nevada. >> nevada. close but to dean heller. >> all right. next one? >> ohio. it's closed up but brown wins. >> brown wins. does he outperform the president by what, two points? >> i don't know. yeah, yeah. >> if you were to guess, it's going to be a tight race? >> florida, nelson beats mak. then we get to virginia. >> where are you there? >> i guess i would give kane maybe a tiny finger on the scale. >> give it to blue? give it to blue? >> i don't know. >> we'll put it there for now. we can change it back. that gets us through the presidential toss-ups. let's go to the red states if you will. these are a ton of great senate races, let's start with arizona. >> flake wins. >> flake wins. >> montana, that's scary. everybody, both sides say it's really too close. >> the libertarian candidate is going to make the winning number.

it could. >> i guess he gets a couple. this guy john tester up a point or two and the question is does that save him? let's do edge tester. >> all right. next one? north dakota right next door. >> north dakota, i think berg wins. it's very, very close. >> the same way you feel about montana. >> yeah. >> not quite as close. >> yeah. >> let's stick in the red states. nebraska. >> it tightened up, fisher wins. >> bob kerry keeps it under ten. >> it's a good race. >> missouri? >> mccaskill wins. it will be within ten and it will be -- this is when we talked about pennsylvania, being philadelphia in the east and pittsburgh in the west and alabama in between. kansas city, st. louis and alabama in between. it will be close. >> indiana? >> close but i think donnelly

edges, which again obama is going to lose a state, but donnelly i think will win. but it will be very competitive. >> you know, we skipped one of the big swing ones, wisconsin. what's going to be closer, wisconsin or virginia? i have you silent. i have you silent. is wisconsin that close? who would you put on tammy or tommy? >> i think i would go edge to tommy but very close. >>s the interesting, you don't even know what the makeup is we've made here. maine, massachusetts, connecticut. does anything go red in those three? >> no. >> none of them go red. we're going to give independent to maine? >> yeah. >> you're going to have elizabeth warren and scott murphy holding on, chris murphy holding on. guess what you end up having? a net zero. 53 to 47, net zero.

>> just think how many billions of dollars spent. >> what does it say -- it's a converse we're going to have. what does i say we're going to spend $6 billion and we may have a status quo election house senate and the presidency. >> it says there's so much money floating around that it just cancels itself out and that voters, this is the opposite of the last three elections. we have had three wave elections in a row, and now there's no way one way or the other. >> let's talk quickly about the house. i know there's been, tons of redistricting, certainly plenty of competitive interesting house races and yet i think the stunning thing for a lot of people this week was democrats quietly admitting they may not pick up a single seat. >> it's entirely possible you could have it break even. the thing is republicans won when the maps were drawn, and they probably pulled 15 seats that would have gone democratic off. so instead of looking at even or maybe democrats picking up 15, 20 seats, we're talking about democrats breaking even or maybe

picking up 5. >> who is the leader of the house democrats, january 20? >> the question is does nancy pelosi leave soon or does she want to wait through the budget deal and then leave. i don't think she'll be in congress a year from today. and the question is do they do generational change? >> charlie cook, the man who broke it all down. you didn't plan on this, i don't think. but status quo. >> i heard we were going to do this, i hated you. >> thank you, charlie. i spoke with one of the 11 senators that are leaving this year. if you go to our website, you can see the interviews on all of those issues and all of them talk about what's wrong with washington and what could make it work better. we're back in democracy plaza with our saturday panel and some of the stranger ways to predict who will win on tuesday. you're watching a special primetime edition of "the daily rundown." we'll be right back. ♪

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and now a different way to predict the winner of the 2012 presidential race. sports events, don't believe me? you may heard of the red skins rule. when they win their last home game prior to a presidential election, that election is won by the party that won the popular vote in the previous election. when the redskins lose their last home game, it is won by the party that lost the popular vote in the previous election. this rule is 18 for 18. it had an addendum to it because the one year it could have been wrong was 2004 when the redskins lost but president bush won re-election. but the popular vote. you get that whole addendum we put in there? in 2008, the phillies won the world series, obama carried pennsylvania and he went on to win the election. in 2008 the phillies won the

world series obama carried pennsylvania and went on to win the election in '96. in '96 the yankees won, clinton carried new york. tigers won, reagan carried mitch, you get the picture? tigers won, reagan carried michigan, he won the election. you get the picture. we could keep going. you get to go all the way back to herbert hoover. the world series champs this year the san francisco giants come from california, the state president obama has carried. and one of the newest predictors is in college football. the winner of the university of alabama-lsu game. they have accuratedly predicted since 1984. let's bring our saturday super panel. kelly wallace, nbc news special correspondent tom brokaw and host of new york one's inside city hall, erin lewis.

tom brokaw, you like that one? >> that's what the people of alabama and lsu care about more than the president, that's for sure. i'm confident in that prediction. >> tom, i want to talk about this larger issue that i think no matter who wins or loses. the winning candidate has to govern a nation that is really, really divided. >> yeah, it's not going to be a mandate it appears from all the polling that we're seeing and just the anecdotal evidence as well, i think it's going to be tougher for president obama if he gets re-elected because it does appear that the house will remain in the hands of the republicans and a lot of those are tea party members who will be going back to the house. i've been talking to some of them. they have not given up the cause, the crusade. they're not going away. for governor romney, he likes to talk about how well he got along with the democrats when he was in the massachusetts state house. it's a different set of democrats that he'll be dealing with if he gets to be president who are in the senate and it appears that they'll hang on to the senate. >> one of the things that may be

going on here, that some of the republicans may be hinting at, i'll start with you, you're the new york guy, all of you are new yorkers, i'm the onlooker, which is the sandy effect and the idea that somehow it froze the race that we know, but did it actually help the president? maybe all of us are too consumed to know about it for sure. but eroll, the cooperation between bloomberg, cuomo, christie and the president couldn't have hurt him. >> it shows the guy can do his day job at a minimum. i think the republicans have to acknowledge that. and you know, freezing the race for a few days really hurts romney. he had a lot of ground to make up in some key states and he just got pushed off the page. he didn't have any active roll that would take him into the news cycle related to sandy and marginally, around the edges a lot of the worst scenarios

happen to be republican strongholds. it so happens a lot of the places that were devastated were in more conservative areas. >> when christie said he was thanking president obama, two days before it was about how the president was terrible at bipartisanship and the mitt romney presidency would be good at it. >> the love pat from christie was unbelievable and it will really have an effect. it also takes a big storm to make a case for big government, and i think that's what we've seen now. you have a situation where romney was calling for emergency services to be pushed back to the states and for there to be sharing, but when you've got a block of 12 states sitting together all hit by the same thing, that argument doesn't sound too good. >> kelly, one of the reasons i was told that mitt romney was so doing this bipartisan message is suburban women. >> absolutely. >> and women were tired of this polarization. >> they are and you know they're going to decide the election. many of them who voted for obama last time around may have been on the fence this time around.

they could potentially go for mitt romney. i think on that point i think one of the issues of vulnerables for the president has been this leadership issues question not being a strong enough leader. voila, the week before the election he clearly has shown leadership on this issue that many suburban women will be able to work with democrats and republicans to get something done. >> if the president wins, does this blaming sandy by republicans a little unfair? >> if they do blame it on sandy, it will be unfair. i think if the president wins it's going to be the get out the vote that he's going to put together across the country in ohio and all of the key states. he'll win with the latino vote, with the african-american vote, with unmarried women, with women generally, with what labor impact still remains in those states. so he's going to do a patchwork thing but they're very confident about that.

what i do think that the month of october has told us is that the absence of passion for either one of these candidates, because the national got moved -- >> so easily. from the debate. >> they really did. they just moved around the landscape, wake up tuesday morning i'm going to go the other way. >> that reminds me of 2000. bush-gore was that way. the passion wasn't for each of them. >> that's right. i agree with that. and i think that may be one reason it's time to bring on bill clinton as we're seeing. >> it is also a reminder. this is why i think, what if they're both right. what if they're both right about their models and we end up with this collision of recounts. i think it's more possible than people realize. >> i do, too. and having been through it in 2000. >> when we come back, we're going to do a little bit of surprises. >> i only have a few years left. >> you haven't seen it all, i promise you. >> 269-269. then you can say you've seen it all. trivia time.

we asked name the only two states that flipped their presidential vote both in 2004 and in 2008. they were gore, bush, obama. the answer is iowa and new mexico, both states. gore in 2004, bush in '08. iowa, could they flip again? if you have a trivia question that should be on the show, e-mail us. we'll be right back from democracy plaza. jenna shared her recipe with sharon, who emailed it to emily, who sent it to cindy, who wondered why her soup wasn't quite the same. the recipe's not the recipe... ohhh. [ female announcer ] ...without swanson. the broth cooks trust most when making soup. mmmm! [ female announcer ] the secret is swanson. and you learned something along the way. this is the age of knowing what you're made of. so, why let erectile dysfunction get in your way? talk to your doctor about viagra. 20 million men already have.

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i wanted to know whether we call you governor ventura or governor the body. >> well, actually, tom, i've changed that. i'm no longer the body, i'm jesse "the mind" ventura. >> fair enough. >> it was this day in 1998 when former professional wrestler

shocked the world when jesse "the body" ventura won a third-party victory in the state of minnesota over norm coleman and hubert humphrey ii. let's bring back our panel. i'll start with you, errol, if you had a surprise that you think would be ventura-esque, i'll tell you, on the monday before the election, ventura in tracking polls was coming but he was still in third place. >> i think we all know the latino vote is important. i think it's going to be a margin of victory and will reshape politics in colorado, nevada, florida and north carolina. and it could be the margin in several or even all four of note those states, in which --

>> the president says it will be one or two of those because of the latinos. >> it will reshape politics in those states. >> verona, what do you have? >> i don't know if this is venturaesque, but i think there's a chance that the house could go democrat. >> that would shock the world. you know what, i applaud the bold list. >> i'm going bold. i'll tell you why. conventional wisdom says when the economy is recovering, it should favor incumbents in the status quo, but polls show a tremendously dissatisfy ied congress and that has a tight correlation with incumbent upsets. >> mine is something that should not be a surprise. we have a record number of women running in the house and senate this year. women make up only 17 percent of the house and the senate. prediction here, surprising, it will be truly the year of the woman in 2012 and that women will increase that percentage about 17%. >> i promise you, in the senate, it will be at least 20 percent

and maybe 21 or 22. tom, you love the unforeseen. >> i've got a new surprise. my surprise will be if she's right. [ laughter ] my surprise is not so much a surprise, but something to keep your eye on. i think republicans across the country are going to tighten their holds on state capitals or state legislatures with long-term consequences. they are more conservative than ever. the tea party is planting its flag in a lot of the statehouses and that will have consequences in redistributing, how you spend education money in those states. that's a thing we don't talk about a lot, but that changes the political landscape in america. >> and it certainly does the issue of governing. i'm just going to say that we'll have at least two states uncalled by 4:00 a.m. and we're going to be hanging -- you know, brian williams is going to hand it directly to matt lauer. that's how we are going to hand

it off, directly to matt and keep blowing through shameless plugs. erro lorks, you first. >> if you want to know anything that's going on with the effects of the storm, you have to watch ny1. not on your cable box? ny1.com. >> okay, my monday column on time.com about what the markets are going to do if romney wins and if obama wins and it's not what you think. >> fair enough. kelly? >> for the women's perspective, the election results and the year of the woman. ivillage.com/ivote. >> and tom? >> my guess is that by wednesday morning, a lot of the country is going to say we went through all of this for this? >> $6 billion. my shameless plug is to anna tuman, her brother, he had gas in his car. he got our guests here willing to pick them up. thank you very much. that's it for this special prime time edition of "the daily rundown."

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